ANALYSIS – Should Debaltseve fall, then the reality on the ground is that the rebel held parts of eastern Ukraine are all but lost to Kiev. Reports that rebel leader Alexander Zacharchenko is seeking to raise 100, 000 men to counter any further attempt to claw back Dontesk and Luhansk show that Europe and Nato, as well as the US have been too slow in realising how serious the Russian backed separatists are. Arming Kiev now will make the situation worse for the civilians who may be tough but have had to endure the hardships of war for almost a year. When Russian tanks moved into Crimea, no one seriously thought Russia would back an insurgency in the east of Ukraine, for the bloodshed would have been horrendous. And yet the apocalyptic pictures that emerged from Donetsk airport and other regions have put a lie to all that. The reality is that Ukraine, Nato and it’s allies will have meet the rebels and their Russian backers to sue for peace and an end to this conflict which had cost 5,000 lives and displaced 1.2 million people. And that will leave Nato and Europe looking anxiously at it’s other Russian speaking territories, a Nato that should have realised that its own behaviour after the end of the Cold War had made Moscow nervous also.