ANALYSIS – If reports are to be believed, the IEA will confirm that Iran has been pursuing a nuclear programme that is anything but peaceful, what will the main protaganists in this whole sage do next?
Will Israel launch an attack on Tehran’s nuclear programme – Russia certainly fears so, today warning of the consequences of such an attack. Iran is not Iraq under Saadam Hussein in 1981 when the government of Menachem Begin, taking advantage of many divsisons within the Middle East successfully took out Baghdad’s nuclear reactor
Today’s Middle East – as the Arab Spring is showing – is politically aware and as the Hezbollah showed during the four week Lebanon war no longer afraid of the state that had once inflicted a six-day defeat on three of large rivals.
So an attack from Israel may be little more than sabre rattling from Tel Aviv. With her superpower patron engaged in multiple wars on a number of fronts, there is little chance – though not completely – of an attack from America. The same of course can not be said for Nato who would be destroyed by any such attempt – we may all yet regret the hasty decision by Cameron and Sarkozy to ‘take out’ Gaddafi.
So that leaves diplomacy with its carots and sticks that the West has been pursuing for the last decade.
No one has won in the beligerent tone taken by first George Bush and later Barack Obama against the nation that calls itself the Islamic state of Iran.
Not those who are looking to a nuclear free world.
And certainly not those who prior to that stupid speech by Bush declaring a war on terror were quietly pushing their country into a future as a secular state born of the Islamic tradition.